Sector-Specific Machine Learning Models for Short-Term Sugarcane Yield Forecasting Using NDVI at Plot Level

Abstract

Abstract Accurate plot-level sugarcane yield forecasting is essential for optimizing agricultural management, resource allocation, and operational planning. Existing forecasting approaches are often limited by their inability to capture temporal crop dynamics and local biophysical variability, reducing their usefulness for real-time decision-making. To develop and evaluate a Machine Learning (ML)-based framework for short-term sugarcane yield forecasting at plot level using age-segmented Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Sentinel-2 imagery, and to determine the earliest crop stage at which reliable yield predictions can be obtained. An integrated dataset was constructed by combining productivity records from 2,132 sugarcane plots across six harvest seasons (2016–17 to 2021–22) with NDVI time series derived from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. NDVI observations were aggregated into phenology-based temporal intervals, from which statistical features were extracted. Ten ML regression algorithms were evaluated under two forecasting schemes: a global model trained with all observations and a sector-specific approach that developed localized models for individual production sectors. Model performance was assessed using RMSE and R² on an independent test set. The sector-specific approach outperformed the global model, achieving an RMSE of 12.48 TCH and an R² of 0.7840 on the independent test set, compared with an RMSE of 16.75 TCH and an R² of 0.5724 for the global model. Sparse Partial Least Squares (spls) and Support Vector Machines with Polynomial Kernel (svmPoly) were the most frequently selected algorithms. SHAP analysis revealed that Median NDVI was the dominant predictive feature, while the Elongation I stage was the most influential phenological period. Reliable forecasts were obtained from the fifth month of crop growth (RMSE = 14.13 TCH), and prediction accuracy improved progressively as the crop matured. The proposed framework also surpassed traditional expert estimations (RMSE = 15.47), providing earlier and more accurate yield forecasts. This study demonstrates that localized, sector-specific ML models combined with temporal NDVI dynamics can provide accurate and operationally useful plot-level sugarcane yield forecasts. The framework supports proactive agronomic management, improves planning and budgeting processes, and offers a scalable methodology for precision agriculture and sustainable sugarcane production systems.

Plant phenotyping relevance

圃場・区画レベルのサトウキビ収量という植物形質を、Sentinel-2 NDVI時系列と機械学習から推定する枠組みを開発・評価しており、予測手法が中心である。

Code and data availability

The paper's core assets (plot-level TCH productivity records for 2,132 plots, the derived NDVI_AGE dataset, and the DATA_WORK modeling dataset) are proprietary to Ingenio Magdalena S.A. and explicitly not publicly available; they can only be obtained from the authors upon reasonable request with the company'spermission

No evidence-backed public reproduction asset is currently recorded.