of the ‘Severo Ochoa’ Centres of Excellence programme, Ref. CEX2023‐001340‐S, funded by MICIU/AEI/ https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 . Also it was supported by the Spanish Government project IMPROMED (grant no. PID2023‐152644NB‐I00). Data availability The data and code for analyses and figures are available through GitHub ( https://github.com/emf‐creaf/LFMC_FR_CAT ). Also, the data that support the findings of this study are available in the Supporting Information of this article, specifically in Tables S1–S3 . References Balaguer‐Romano R , De Cáceres M , Espelta JM . 2025 . Second‐growth forests exhibit higher sensitivity to dry and wet years than long‐existing ones . Ecosystems 28 : 6
Open resource ↗emf‐creaf/LFMC_FR_CAT · lines:253-664Unverified paper record
Key sources of uncertainty in process-based modeling of live fuel moisture content.
The New phytologist · 22 May 2026 · 10.1111/nph.71286
Abstract
Process-based models that mechanistically represent water-carbon balances in the atmosphere-soil-plant continuum are an attractive tool for monitoring live fuel moisture content (LFMC) dynamics, a key variable when assessing fire danger. However, their application as operational tools to assess near-term wildfire danger at regional scale faces important challenges. Here, we explored key sources of prediction uncertainty in process-based modeling of LFMC. We applied the SurEau-ECOS model of plant hydraulics embedded within the MEDFATE modeling framework to assess how the accuracy of LFMC predictions was influenced by input data sources, by the availability of species-specific plant traits and by the level of mechanistic detail used to model water content of plant tissues. A lack of accurate data describing soil physical properties compromises the application of process-based models for predicting LFMC. Nonetheless, using global meteorological and vegetation data allows for successful regional-scale applications. Fully mechanistic approaches that model LFMC from plant water status using ecophysiological knowledge yield more accurate predictions. However, when reliable plant traits are lacking, semimechanistic approaches based on empirical equations offer a robust alternative. Overall, addressing the sources of uncertainty highlighted here could pave the way for developing operational tools to forecast near-term wildfire danger through process-based modeling of LFMC dynamics.
Plant phenotyping relevance
植物の生体燃料水分量（LFMC）という生理状態の推定モデルを対象に、入力データ、植物形質、機構的詳細度が予測精度へ与える影響と不確実性を評価しており、植物状態の取得・推定手法が中心である。
abstractHere, we explored key sources of prediction uncertainty in process-based modeling of LFMC.
abstractWe applied the SurEau-ECOS model of plant hydraulics embedded within the MEDFATE modeling framework to assess how the accuracy of LFMC predictions was influenced by input data sources, by the availability of species-specific plant traits and by the level of mechanistic detail used to model water content of plant tissues.
Code and data availability
The paper's Data availability statement explicitly deposits the LFMC field data (Catalan and Reseau–Hydrique networks) and the analysis/figure code in a public GitHub repository, which directly reproduces this paper's phenotyping measurements (7203 LFMC values) and computational analysis. Supporting Information TablesS
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