Climate and disease: tackling coffee brown-eye spot with advanced forecasting models.

Abstract

Background Climate influences the interaction between pathogens and their hosts significantly. This is particularly evident in the coffee industry, where fungal diseases like Cercospora coffeicola, causing brown-eye spot, can reduce yields drastically. This study focuses on forecasting coffee brown-eye spot using various models that incorporate agrometeorological data, allowing for predictions at least 1 week prior to the occurrence of disease. Data were gathered from eight locations across São Paulo and Minas Gerais, encompassing the South and Cerrado regions of Minas Gerais state. In the initial phase, various machine learning (ML) models and topologies were calibrated to forecast brown-eye spot, identifying one with potential for advanced decision-making. The top-performing models were then employed in the next stage to forecast and spatially project the severity of brown-eye spot across 2681 key Brazilian coffee-producing municipalities. Meteorological data were sourced from NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources platform, and the Penman-Monteith method was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, leading to a Thornthwaite and Mather water-balance calculation. Six ML models - K-nearest neighbors (KNN), artificial neural network multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector machine (SVM), random forests (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and gradient boosting regression (GradBOOSTING) - were employed, considering disease latency to time define input variables. Results These models utilized climatic elements such as average air temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, evapotranspiration, water deficit, and surplus. The XGBoost model proved most effective in high-yielding conditions, demonstrating high precision and accuracy. Conversely, the SVM model excelled in low-yielding scenarios. The incidence of brown-eye spot varied noticeably between high- and low-yield conditions, with significant regional differences observed. The accuracy of predicting brown-eye spot severity in coffee plantations depended on the biennial production cycle. High-yielding trees showed superior results with the XGBoost model (R 2 = 0.77, root mean squared error, RMSE = 10.53), whereas the SVM model performed better under low-yielding conditions (precision 0.76, RMSE = 12.82). Conclusion The study's application of agrometeorological variables and ML models successfully predicted the incidence of brown-eye spot in coffee plantations with a 7 day lead time, illustrating that they were valuable tools for managing this significant agricultural challenge. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Plant phenotyping relevance

コーヒー葉の病害状態（brown-eye spotの発生・重症度）を機械学習で予測する手法が研究の中心であり、複数モデルの較正・比較と精度評価を行っているため、病害表現型の計算的推定として含める。

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