Integrating Multi-Source and Multi-Temporal UAV Observations to Improve Wheat Yield Prediction Using Machine Learning.

Abstract

Accurate yield estimation is vital for precision wheat management and breeding. Traditional methods based on single growth stages or single-source data cannot capture cumulative growth effects, limiting prediction accuracy. UAV remote sensing provides high-resolution, multi-source, and multi-temporal data, enabling improved non-destructive yield estimation. In this study, UAV-based multispectral and RGB imagery were collected at six key growth stages, and vegetation indices, texture, and color features were extracted to develop yield prediction models using RF, XGBoost, and KNN under single- and multi-temporal scenarios. The results showed that red-edge-based vegetation indices were highly sensitive to wheat yield and outperformed texture- and color-based features. Multi-feature fusion further improved prediction accuracy at key growth stages, particularly during booting and flowering (R 2 = 0.53-0.67). Compared with single-temporal models, multi-temporal data fusion significantly enhanced yield estimation accuracy, achieving a maximum R 2 of 0.72 by integrating data from the late-jointing, booting and flowering stages. Among the algorithms, XGBoost and KNN exhibited superior accuracy and stability across most growth stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that integrating UAV-based multi-source and multi-temporal remote sensing data effectively improves the accuracy and robustness of wheat yield estimation, providing valuable technical support for precision agriculture and phenotyping-assisted breeding.

Plant phenotyping relevance

UAV画像から特徴量を抽出し、機械学習でコムギ収量を推定する手法が研究の中心であり、マルチソース・マルチテンポラル統合の技術評価も行っている。

Code and data availability

The paper's UAV multispectral/RGB imagery, extracted vegetation/color/texture features, and yield data are not deposited in any public repository. The Data Availability Statement states the data are available only from the corresponding authors upon request, and no author code or model checkpoints are mentioned.

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