DyMEP: R package for weather data-based phenology prediction for ten crops

Abstract

For most digital agriculture applications, such as in-season yield predictions, information on crop phenology is a prerequisite. Phenology is largely determined by environmental factors, e.g., temperature, precipitation, and global radiation. Consequently, weather data can be used to predict phenology. Here, we introduce the R package Dynamic Multi-Environmental Phenology (DyMEP) that facilitates such predictions. DyMEP was trained for ten crops, among others winter wheat, spring wheat, barley, green peas, beans and oat, with a large dataset representing the Central European climate. DyMEP fills the gap between complex, highly parameterized crop growth models that are difficult to use by non-experts, and extremely simplified models such as the Growing Degree Day approach. By carefully selecting the environmental covariates to use for each phenological phase, the user can reach suitable prediction accuracy for most applications in DyMEP. If temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and global radiation are available as covariates to select from, the package achieves absolute errors ranging from 0 to 6 days across all applied phenology phases and root mean square errors ranging from 7 to 17 days on an independent test set. Combining DyMEP-based phenology predictions with ground-based or remote sensing observations holds promise to facilitate digital agriculture applications such as large-scale yield forecasting or monitoring of fields for crop insurance.

Plant phenotyping relevance

作物の生育ステージ（フェノロジー）を気象データから予測するRパッケージを開発・評価しており、植物状態の計測・推定手法が研究の中心である。

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