GrapevineXL reliably predicts multi-annual dynamics of vine water status, berry growth, and sugar accumulation in vineyards.

Abstract

Climate and water availability greatly affect each season's grape yield and quality. Using models to accurately predict environment impacts on fruit productivity and quality is a huge challenge. We calibrated and validated the functional-structural model, GrapevineXL, with a data set including grapevine seasonal midday stem water potential (Ψ xylem ), berry dry weight (DW), fresh weight (FW), and sugar concentration per volume ([Sugar]) for a wine grape cultivar ( Vitis vinifera cv. Cabernet Franc) in field conditions over 13 years in Bordeaux, France. Our results showed that the model could make a fair prediction of seasonal Ψ xylem and good-to-excellent predictions of berry DW, FW, [Sugar] and leaf gas exchange responses to predawn and midday leaf water potentials under diverse environmental conditions with 14 key parameters. By running virtual experiments to mimic climate change, an advanced veraison (i.e. the onset of ripening) of 14 and 28 days led to significant decreases of berry FW by 2.70% and 3.22%, clear increases of berry [Sugar] by 2.90% and 4.29%, and shortened ripening duration in 8 out of 13 simulated years, respectively. Moreover, the impact of the advanced veraison varied with seasonal patterns of climate and soil water availability. Overall, the results showed that the GrapevineXL model can predict plant water use and berry growth in field conditions and could serve as a valuable tool for designing sustainable vineyard management strategies to cope with climate change.

Plant phenotyping relevance

GrapevineXLという機能・構造モデルを13年間の圃場データで較正・検証し、水分状態、果粒成長、糖濃度などの植物形質を予測する方法が研究の中心である。

Code and data availability

The article describes a 13-year field phenotyping dataset (water potential, berry FW/DW/sugar) and a meta-analysis dataset (Dataset S1, Table S1), but no public repository deposit, author analysis code, or public URL for these assets is provided in the supplied blocks. The only URL mentioned (WebPlotDigitizer) is a cit

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